Economy
With Fed Poised to Restart Rate Cuts, History Hints at Market Outcomes
In late August 2025, global financial markets focused on a potential pivot in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium drove market expectations for a September rate cut from around 65% to nearly 90%, signaling a possible e
How can the United States break the dilemma of "high debt and low growth"?
A year ago, TMC Research predicted that Washington's policy space would be significantly compressed amidst slowing economic growth and a failing, if not expanding, federal fiscal deficit. Twelve months later, this risk has not abated.The latest data shows that nominal output, as measured by the
Markets Are Betting on a September Rate Cut — What’s Making the Fed Hesitate?
1.The July meeting minutes showed that the upside risk to inflation outweighs the downside risk to employment, due to inflation remaining above the 2% target and the potential for tariffs to push prices higher.2.The minutes reiterated that premature easing could stimulate demand and hinder disinflat
Understanding this bull market
After Japan's surrender in 1945, many economists predicted that the United States would plunge back into the Great Depression, driven by massive disarmament and surging unemployment. After all, the United States had just experienced the Great Depression and 25% unemployment before World War II.
Who is eating up the US growth rate?
In recent months, rising US debt and widening fiscal deficits have frequently dominated financial headlines. For example, CNBC recently reported that the US federal deficit is rapidly expanding due to a combination of tax cuts, expansionary fiscal stimulus, and entitlement spending. Institutions
Is a September Rate Cut a Done Deal?
On August 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the annual inflation rate in July held steady at 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month and below the market expectation of 2.8%, failing to sustain the earlier rebound. Core CPI rose to 3.1% year-over-year, marking the hi
The truth behind the dollar's "collapse theory"
Over the past year, financial media has been filled with alarmist claims of an "imminent collapse" of the US dollar. Financial influencers on social media have brandished charts depicting the "dollar's doom," while prominent figures in financial publications have loudly warned of the risks of
Is Wall Street's optimism a real trend or a false prosperity?
Last week, the market saw significant volatility, driven by a combination of macroeconomic headwinds and earnings reports from high-risk companies. The S&P 500 fell 2.36% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.17%. While technology stocks performed strongly this week, overall volatility was significant.
The Market is Considering: Will the Fed Make a 25 or 50 Basis Point Cut in September?
In July 2025, the U.S. ISM Services PMI data showed that activity in the services sector nearly stalled, with the index at 50.1, barely holding above the breakeven line. This data reflects the slowdown in the U.S. economy, especially against the backdrop of persistent weakness in the labor market an
The Probability of a September Interest Rate Cut Is Declining
As broadly expected by the market, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the July FOMC meeting. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not provide a clear signal regarding a potential rate cut in September during the subsequent press conference. Instead, he emphasized ongoing uncertainties surround
Inflation Edges Higher, Complicating the Fed’s Path Forward
Amid the effects of a new wave of sweeping tariff measures announced by former President Trump, U.S. inflation rebounded broadly in June, breaking the previous narrative of continued disinflation. The PCE price index rose more than expected on both a monthly and yearly basis, with core inflation ret
Is the Market's Concern Over Trump Tariffs Fading?
In July 2025, despite the Trump administration’s continued push for aggressive trade policies and threats to impose tariffs on goods from multiple countries as early as August 1, concerns among consumers and businesses about the impact of tariffs are gradually easing. Recent economic data indicate t
June Non-Farm Payrolls Exceed Expectations, Potential Delay in Fed Rate Cut
Currently, market traders have almost entirely abandoned bets on a rate cut at the July meeting
Even with the growing voices that "American exceptionalism is dead," the current trend of the U.S. stock market still suggests that a bull market seems to be coming. Entering 2025, market sentiment has experienced a dramatic reversal. Unpredictable trade policies, rising government debt, and downwar
June CPI Coming Up: Will the Fed Still Cut Rates?
Will the Fed Still Cut Rates
